After discussions with a few people of varying political opinions and geopolitical experience, I think we’ve come up with a theory that fits the observed facts in Iraq vis a vis the search for weapons of mass destruction. First and foremost, let me say that evidence and proof are two vastly different things, with proof being hard to fake and evidence being pretty easy to muck up. For an example, see People v. Orenthal Simpson, 1994.
Let me lay out some things we have to take as givens in order to move forward:
- Saddam is not an idiot. Anyone who can be a military and political strongman for over 20 years has a brain cell or two to rub together.
- Nobody in their right mind thought the Iraqi military had a chance in hell of defeating the US military.
- The US military has a great deal of evidence that Saddam had WMD and had plans to use them, including evidence that they were deployed in defense of Iraq this past month.
- Nobody is sure where Saddam is.
- The US has no actual verifiable proof of any current or recent WMD production or stockpiles. If they had proof, they’d be crowing from the rooftops.
- Saddam had a lot of money and he may not have left it all for American soldiers to attempt to recreate bad movies with.
Now, with those items as a basis, we can make some interesting possibilities. The one that the current administration is betting on, because it won’t make them look stupid and/or hotheaded, is that there are chem and bio weapons and that some of the currently incarcerated Iraqi leadership coughs them up.
Here’s the possibility I came up with.
Saddam planted the evidence to make us spin our wheels and waste resources while simultaneously pissing off the Iraqi people.
Think about it and see if it fits available information. Saddam is sitting in a nice cozy seaside villa. He’s shaved his mustache and is wearing a loud gaucho shirt while drinking things with umbrellas in them. He knew from day one he was gonna lose his country, so he figured this was the geopolitical equivalent of the scorched earth policy. Every day we stay in Iraq and accuse random citizens of harboring bioweapons, we lose a little more sympathy from those same citizens. Every day we continue to not find jack, we lose a bit more of the grudging respect of our allies in the UN and NATO.
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Possibly.
Other theories include:
* The U.S. already knows where the WMD are, and for whatever reason are waiting for the right moment to produce them.
* Between France/Russia/Germany the WMD have been conveniently disposed of, in order to not make them look so bad.
* There are large amounts of such weapons stored somewhere in Iran, after it became obvious that the U.S. was going to invade.
As for myself, I am still trying to decide amongst these. I will concede, however, that nothing would surprise me at this point.
The current popular theory is that Saddam had the WMD’s destroyed as soon as the US announced their intent to attack, either to make us look foolish, or to try and save his hide by proving that he had nothing. I’m not buying that he destroyed the amounts of stuff we’re claiming he had, that fast.
The gaucho shirt/umbrella drink theory has some merit. CNN actually reported such earlier today. They did several computer generated composites to suggest what he might look like. They also suggested several countries which might have aided him in escaping. It was said that the only hole in that theory is that we had the borders closed, and it would have been hard for him to escape. Cockroaches tend to be sneaky and sly however.
Perhaps Saddam figured out that “there is no spoon”, and unplugged himself from the Matrix.