31 Dec 2010 @ 12:01 AM
Last year, I made a set of predictions for 2010. Let’s see how badly I did this year.
- I assumed tablet PCs would remain a niche nobody had heard of. Assuming you count the iPad as a tablet PC (I don’t), this is obviously false. Less obviously, everyone has at this point at least considered a tablet PC. I’m counting this as a miss, but with the caveat that tablet PCs are probably never going to catch on – what we’ll have are tablet devices (which are not PCs).
- President Obama has, if anything, grown even larger horns in the eyes of the right-wing media and punditocracy. Considering that he’s also become something of a punching bag on the left for not actually having a spine or delivering on many of his promises (States Secrets, Gitmo, whatever), it’s almost painful to watch. Definitely got this one, although it was kind of a no-brainer.
- I heard the GOP did ok in the midterms, so I suppose this one is a hit as well. Again, not really a tough call – the non-Presidential party almost always gains midterm seats.
- The economy is improving, by some measures, but most people will still look at their bank accounts and pay stubs and have a hard time believing it. I missed this one, and it makes me very sad.
- Yeah, still no crypto that anyone uses, and boy are the leaks popping up everywhere!
- The ebook readers continue the trend of walled gardens – stupid move, in my opinion, but a hit for my prediction ability!
- Sarah Palin is the worst game of whakamole ever. Please someone make her go away.
- TSA flight restrictions pissed people off and made headlines, but somehow the airlines look to actually be profitable this year. Miss, but barely (In May, the IATA predicted losing billions).
- The weather was indeed remarkable, and the denialists continued to pretend that there was nothing wrong anywhere ever. Another sad hit.
- Another year without any substantive disagreements between my lovely bride and myself. Yay!
My hit rate this year was less than impressive. I got 7 of 10, slightly worse than last year (and it’s 8/10 if you don’t consider an ipad a PC – neener).  Somehow, we’ve made it over one decade into the 21st century, and we haven’t seen flying cars, jetpacks, or even aquatic aliens on Jovian moons. *sigh*
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Was the weather ever … unremarkable? Up until around 1350, there were Viking farmers in Greenland. But then the weather turned cold, and they were unable to farm there any more. They still aren’t. I bet those guys were begging for a little “global warming.”
Curious about your views on crypto. SSH and SSL are pretty prevalent.
SSH is prevalent only among geeks. SSL is prevalent, sure. When I refer to crypto, I’m meaning the PGP-esque crypto that actually requires a key and some thought. Once upon a time, I knew one guy who insisted on PGP-encrypting all of his email. He outgrew it. But, as more and more data go online, personal crypto becomes more important, yet we’re still not likely to use it. Also, most people don’t back up their computers.