BunkBlog

So, according to the vast majority of respected economists, including those with Nobel prizes, the stimulus might work, but it might be too late for anything to make things better in the short term.  Even Christina Romer (President Obama’s economic adviser) thinks the stimulus will only slow the growth rate of the unemployment rate in the near term, bringing it back down in two years. But, they all agree that to do nothing is definitely not going to do anything of value.

“We have very few good examples to guide us,” said William G. Gale, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, the liberal-leaning research organization. “I don’t know of any convincing evidence that what has been proposed is going to be enough.”

Christina Romer, whom Mr. Obama has designated to be his chief economist, concluded in research she helped write in 1994 that interest-rate policy is the most powerful force in economic recoveries and that fiscal stimulus generally acts too slowly to be of much help in pulling the economy out of recessions, though associates said she now supports a big stimulus package if policy makers roll it out early enough in the recession.

Adam Posen, the deputy director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, said Mr. Obama’s plan could provide just the right boost — if it was carried out properly.

Alan J. Auerbach, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, said the overall scale of the program looked “reasonable” at $800 billion over two years.

“It’s much bigger than anything that’s been tried in my lifetime, but this is scarier than anything we’ve seen in my lifetime,” Professor Auerbach said.

For those who point out that Romer once said that throwing money at a recession doesn’t work – no.  You’re wrong, that’s not what she said.  She said that monetary policy is better to use than fiscal policy. Unfortunately, the interest rates are at zero now, so there is no more room for monetary policy. Fiscal policy is what we have available, so that’s what we’re stuck with.

For those who think that tax cuts or tax rebates are better than paying for infrastructure buildouts – no.  You’re wrong, and almost no economist agrees with you.

Mark M. Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, a forecasting firm, told a forum of House Democrats this week that the “bang for the buck” — the additional economic activity generated by each dollar of fiscal stimulus — was highest for increases in food and unemployment benefits. Each dollar of additional money for food stamps yields $1.73 in additional economic activity, Mr. Zandi estimated, and each extra dollar in unemployment benefits yields about $1.63.

By contrast, Mr. Zandi estimated, most tax cuts produce less than a dollar for each dollar of stimulus, especially if the tax cuts are temporary, because people save at least some of their extra money.

Joel Slemrod, a professor of tax policy at the University of Michigan, said, “The research I’ve done on the 2001 and 2008 tax rebates suggests that the proportion of the rebates that went to spending was rather small, about one-third.”

I look forward to more random people throwing up logical fallacies. How about, “argument from personal incredulity?” That’s always a good one. After all, if something doesn’t make sense to you, I’m sure that highly trained economists have spent no time at all on it and it’s all just a guess to them too. Over 140 economists, including 5 Nobel Prize winners, support the stimulus package.  If you want to convince me of your point of view, bring more expert opinion than that.

Since there was great hue and cry recently over the completely unprecedented level* of cold that great parts of the United States have experienced this year, it’s reasonable to assume the same people are following this week’s weather news as well.

Unseasonable warm weather is causing flash flood warnings through much of the midwest. Gee, if “winter” is now considered to be a disproof of anthropogenic global warming, is “warm weather” proof? See also, “weather and climate are not the same word.”

* – by “unprecedented” we mean completely precedented in every reasonable way

When I was 8 years old, I had two chemistry sets.  I went through all sorts of experiments, producing acids that I used to clean/destroy small objects, color-changing things, etc. I’ve seen several times over the past few years stories about the new chemistry sets, which apparently don’t contain any chemicals more interesting than tannic acid (tea extract). We don’t want our young people to grow up curious about science, obviously.

And then there is the curious case of Lewis Casey, who was arrested on suspicion of making meth in his garage. When it was proven rather easily that his chemistry lab was merely a chemistry lab (he’s a college chemistry major), the Canadian government charged him with making bombs instead. Have you ever heard the term “chilling effect” before?

Casey is no longer allowed to engage in chemistry experiments except under supervision in school labs. 

That’s insane.

Lou Dobbs (not the most unbiased fella on the tube) had CNN meteorologist Chad Myers on the other day, and the weatherman claimed that global warming is not man-made because that would be arrogant, or something of the sort. This has been one of the various anecdotes that are being touted as proving that global warming is not happening, and even if it is, the problem is not humanity’s fault and we can’t fix it so we should just keep fiddling.  It’s sad that this comes up so frequently.

The meteorological year, December 2007 through November 2008, was the coolest year since 2000, according to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies analysis of surface air temperature measurements. It was the ninth warmest year in the period of instrumental measurements, which extends back to 1880. The nine warmest years all occur within the eleven-year period 1998-2008.

Arctic sea ice has not, in actual scientifically verified fact, improved extent over previous years. It was, indeed, 220,000 square miles more ice cover than last year in November. However, it’s still 260,000 square miles lower than the average 1979-2000 coverage. Furthermore, the extent of coverage has peaked and stopped its rapid growth. Look at the graph linked above – we’re now seeing that the sea ice extent will likely drop below last year’s already-sad numbers by the end of 2008. Air temperatures above the ice remain unusually high, and this will cause a slowing of the ice growth. You may be familiar with warmth and melting.

Yes, it’s a blizzard. No, that doesn’t mean the climate is cooling, it just means there’s a blizzard right now. The plural of “anecdote” is not “data.”

It seems the vast majority of military active duty and veterans I have ever met are vehemently opposed to socialized medicine for the country.  If you’re using socialized medicine, why do you want to deny it to others?

Mike Connell, the man who set up and maintained the invisible email system that the current administration used to avoid the Presidential Records Act, has died in a plane crash. A couple journalists are claiming that Connell was about to roll over and tell all he knew about various shady dealings. Obviously, the same people who believe that President Clinton whacked Vince Foster must also believe that President Bush whacked Mike Connell, right? Don’t be ridiculous.

There is a group that is calling for a full federal investigation of Connell’s crash. They even have a website devoted to what they are calling RoveCyberGate. Personally, I assume that Connell lost control of his small plane and crashed, but it’s always entertaining to see people try to impose a more interesting narrative on reality than is truly warranted.

President-elect Barack Obama is still under attack by the fringe far-right World Net Daily (no, I won’t link to that insane asylum), for not being born in Hawaii as he claims.  Their evidence?  Well, there’s this scanned copy of Obama’s birth certificate which looks funny.  As my coworker Tom says, his Hawaii birth certificate from the same year is pretty funny-looking too. Apparently, that’s the Hawaiian way.

The claim that the birth certificate is a forgery is backed up by no evidence of any kind, but countered by a mountain of it. For example, there’s the birth announcement in the Honolulu Advertiser. They must have been part of a conspiracy by Obama’s grandparents, who thought he might be president one day and so planted an announcement in the paper, even though Obama’s mother was then…where, exactly?

Furthermore, the birth certificate would have to have been used as prima facie evidence of citizenship at various times in Obama’s rather well-scrutinized life. The conspirators to assist Obama’s treachery would have included not only Hawaii’s records division and the aforementioned newspaper, but the Cook County Bureau of vital statistics in Illinois, the Attorney Registration & Disciplinary Commission of the Supreme Court of Illinois, the US Senate, and many other government organizations that are not all Democratic Party shills.

The latest WorldNutDaily smear involves someone who knew someone who knew Obama, who claims that the “natural-born” requirement in the Constitution is silly and should be removed. First, many people make that same point. Secondly, so fucking what? I know someone who claims that the US Government is ceding power to some shadowy Law of the Sea Treaty cabal, that doesn’t mean I’ve become a John Birch Society loon myself, I hope.

Also, for those who don’t realize, the citizenship of your parents affects your citizenship as well. Since I was born abroad to American citizens, I get to fill out extra forms every time my security clearance is up for renewal. But, I am most assuredly an American citizen. So is John McCain, born in Panama. So is Barack Obama, no matter where he was born, because his mother was a citizen. No, it doesn’t matter how OLD she was, you silly knackers.

So, we have a vast conspiracy that covers five decades and involves government and private organizations in multiple states and the federal government, all trying to get this evildoer into office.  The exact reason why all these organizations would cooperate for someone who was unknown ten years ago is never explained, but there must be a reason. The complete lack of evidence for these claims is further proof of the conspiracy, of course.

Or, the alternate hypothesis, Obama’s birth certificate is legitimate.  Occam’s Razor…hmmm.

Pundits scoffing accurate predictions about the economy

Just in case someone hasn’t seen this yet.

This is another great example of the so-called experts being extremely wrong about so many things, yet all the incredibly astoundingly wrong experts still are considered succesful pundits. Mike Norman still has his respected podcast, Charles Payne is still a sought-after stock analyst and broker, the wrong-on-many–levels Ben Stein (is there anything he’s right about?) continues to get on television…

What does it take to discredit people? Telling the public to buy Merrill Lynch and Washington Mutual, telling the public that housing prices are stable and growing…Why does anyone listen to these putzes? They openly laugh at Peter Schiff, who turned out to be 100% correct on every count, and they still get to be on television as experts. Mike, why don’t you get on television? Your predictions have come true approximately one jillion times more frequently than Charles Payne and Art Laffer. Fak.

Prince, in thrall to his Jehovah Witness beliefs, seems to be opposed to gay marriage and adoption.

Prince: Prince Says God Against Homosexuality.

This is the guy who wrote “Pussy Control” and “Darling Nikki?”  What the hell?

Once again, we are shown how easily the McCain/Palin campaign can relate to the average American voter. Yep. Obama is such an elitist, with his one house and paying for his own clothing.

The Republican National Committee spent about $150,000 on clothing, hair styling, makeup and other “campaign accessories” in September for the McCain campaign after Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin joined the ticket as his running mate.

More detail
You’d think this sort of thing would be illegal. Thanks to the campaign finance reform laws backed by Senator McCain over the years, it is illegal for the campaign to spend this sort of money on personal services for a candidate. Fortunately for the campaign, McCain’s bills never included a mention of the National Committee being prohibited from spending that money. Good for them.

What is with the constant repitition of the term “repudiate” this week? It sounds remarkably like the old Nazi/Communist concept of “denouncing” your friends or family in order to prove your ideological purity. What happened to this country?

According to this ABC report, a Reserve linguist is blabbing about some NSA program that targeted Americans.  I sure hope that she is being covered by some sort of Congressional exemption, cuz otherwise she’s kind of violating one of those NDAs like the one I signed this morning (probably the twentieth or more identical form I’ve signed over the years).  Strange that there’s no specific statement that the “whistleblower” is protected that way, but I guess journalists don’t have the same focus as intel geeks.

It’s too bad there’s only one VP debate this year.  I figure a drinking game would be a great addition to any rematch.  Every time Biden quotes a McCain vote that contradicts McCain’s rhetoric, drink.  Every time Palin drops the trailing “g” on any “ing” word, drink.  Every time Palin says “maverick” – shot!  Any time either candidate fully answers the question posed without wandering into completely unrelated territory – everyone drinks!  Fortunately, there’s not much chance of that last one…

Has there been an actual debate, as we would know the event from high school or college debating teams, in the history of televised Presidential debates?  You know, where there are rules that the debaters can violate, such as “not answering the question posed?”  Without procedural rules and the voting from a group of disinterested people, the term “debate” becomes a bit silly.  Both sides can claim to win, and depending on how low we set the bar, we can all agree that both sides “won” a contest that has no score.  *sigh*

I do not think it means what you think it means.

(H/T to danielmedic)

July 11th, 2008 – US Government seizes control of IndyMac, largest S&L in Los Angeles and 7th largest mortgage company in the USA.

September 7th, 2008 – US Government acquires control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two largest mortgage backers in the USA.

September 16th, 2008 – US Government acquires 80% control of AIG, largest insurance company in the USA.

Another great example of how people who are not, by any reasonable definition, wealthy are somehow able to be convinced to support something which is not in their own self-interest.  If you make less than $111,000 per year, why would you support the plan on the left over the plan on the right?  You prefer to give your tax money to rich people, rather than keep it yourself?  Amazing.

Edit: This all assumes, for good historical reason, that the gummint isn’t planning to reduce spending, and therefore the total revenue needs to remain somewhat static.

This seems a bit over-the-top, even for crazy people.  So, I’m curious if any Alaskans (Lorri?) have any insight as to whether the story in LA Progressive has the ring of truth or just hatchet job.

Sarah Palin’s past continues to amuse and enlighten. From the 2006 Alaskan Gubernatorial Candidate Questionnaire:

Will you support funding for abstinence-until-marriage education instead of for explicit sex-education programs, school-based clinics, and the distribution of contraceptives in schools?

Yes, the explicit sex-ed programs will not find my support.

Guess we know how well that turned out for her own family, eh?

And:

Are you offended by the phrase “Under God” in the Pledge of Allegiance? Why or why not?

Not on your life. If it was good enough for the founding fathers, its good enough for me and I’ll fight in defense of our Pledge of Allegiance.

When the Pledge was written in 1892 (I’m betting the Founders were all dead by then), it said this:

“I pledge allegiance to my Flag and the Republic for which it stands: one Nation indivisible, with Liberty and Justice for all.”

And it didn’t get the “Under God” until 1954. Not a lot of Founding Fathers hanging around by then, I’m guessing. They must have a fantastic history program in Alaskan schools.

In other news, there exists some relatively solid evidence that Palin was a member of the semi-seccessionist Alaskan Independence Party (motto: Alaska First — Alaska Always) prior to being elected mayor of Wasilla.

Oh, and just for fun, the pinheads at Faux News apparently believe that living within a few hundred miles of a foreign country counts as foreign policy experience.

By that reasoning, I’ve got vast amounts of foreign policy experience, having lived in Minnesota, Washington, California, and Texas! Not to mention my years living actually in a foreign land. I’m super-qualified to be VP!

In counterpoint to my skepticism surrounding Sarah Palin, check out the Obama campaign’s reaction:

“Today, John McCain put the former mayor of a town of 9,000 with zero foreign policy experience a heartbeat away from the presidency,” Adrianne Marsh, a spokeswoman for Obama, said in a written statement.

That’s just petty and inaccurate.  She’s the former mayor of a town of 9,000 much as Obama is a former community organizer. Ignoring the present position is a slimy trick one usualy associates with devotees of Karl Rove.  Shame.