Last year, I made a set of predictions for 2010. Let’s see how badly I did this year.
- I assumed tablet PCs would remain a niche nobody had heard of. Assuming you count the iPad as a tablet PC (I don’t), this is obviously false. Less obviously, everyone has at this point at least considered a tablet PC. I’m counting this as a miss, but with the caveat that tablet PCs are probably never going to catch on – what we’ll have are tablet devices (which are not PCs).
- President Obama has, if anything, grown even larger horns in the eyes of the right-wing media and punditocracy. Considering that he’s also become something of a punching bag on the left for not actually having a spine or delivering on many of his promises (States Secrets, Gitmo, whatever), it’s almost painful to watch. Definitely got this one, although it was kind of a no-brainer.
- I heard the GOP did ok in the midterms, so I suppose this one is a hit as well. Again, not really a tough call – the non-Presidential party almost always gains midterm seats.
- The economy is improving, by some measures, but most people will still look at their bank accounts and pay stubs and have a hard time believing it. I missed this one, and it makes me very sad.
- Yeah, still no crypto that anyone uses, and boy are the leaks popping up everywhere!
- The ebook readers continue the trend of walled gardens – stupid move, in my opinion, but a hit for my prediction ability!
- Sarah Palin is the worst game of whakamole ever. Please someone make her go away.
- TSA flight restrictions pissed people off and made headlines, but somehow the airlines look to actually be profitable this year. Miss, but barely (In May, the IATA predicted losing billions).
- The weather was indeed remarkable, and the denialists continued to pretend that there was nothing wrong anywhere ever. Another sad hit.
- Another year without any substantive disagreements between my lovely bride and myself. Yay!
My hit rate this year was less than impressive. I got 7 of 10, slightly worse than last year (and it’s 8/10 if you don’t consider an ipad a PC – neener). Somehow, we’ve made it over one decade into the 21st century, and we haven’t seen flying cars, jetpacks, or even aquatic aliens on Jovian moons. *sigh*
2010. The year we make contact. Or not. Let’s see if I can beat 80% accuracy in this year’s predictions.
- Tablet PCs will continue to be something which almost nobody has heard of or cares about.
- President Obama will continue to be vilified by the Right as some sort of mythical evil being.
- The GOP will make some gains in the 2010 midterm elections.
- The US economy will improve enough that even people who watch Faux News have to admit it, although they will claim it’s improving despite anything that President Obama or the Democrats have done.
- There still won’t be a good crypto system that the public uses, despite ever-increasing threats from man-in-the-middle attacks.
- All the various ebook readers will continue to be incompatible with each other.
- Sarah Palin won’t go away.
- TSA flight restrictions will cause the airline industry to lose money.
- And, of course, the weather will continue to be remarkable, which will still not mean anything to denialists.
- Kat and I will still not fight.
I know, many predictions are just “things won’t change” – but they should change, and I’ll be happy if I’m wrong about them. We’ll see how that goes.
Apple Blue Beer
One year ago, I made a series of 10 predictions for the new year. Let’s see how I did.
- The right wing noise machine did find new and interesting ways to make themselves look silly while calling the new president a socialist, a communist, a nazi, and a racist – all at the same time. If President Obama were on fire, the GOP would call fire departments a socialist plot, as John Scalzi wrote this week.
- Windows 7 did not save the computer industry.
- Netbooks were a bit easier to find than I feared, so there’s one point against me. To be fair, the good netbooks were harder to get hold of, so maybe half a point.
- Yep, suck.
- No single sign-on system of any note, although Facebook is getting a lot of headway into “sign in with Facebook” on various sites. Maybe we’ll count this as half and half.
- No crypto.
- DTV changeover was, although delayed yet again until June of 2009, not a crazy display of incompetence and weeping and gnashing of teeth. Got this one wrong.
- Politicians continued to line their pockets by picking ours, and gave as much largesse to their corporate overlords as possible. Sadly, I got this one right.
- Weather was much remarked upon. Denialists continued to deny reality. Climatologists turned out to sometimes be jerks, but that overshadowed that the science continues to be reinforced with evidence.
- Kit dropped me from her “LJ Friends” list after 9 years (no idea why), so I have no idea how amusing she is.
Let’s see, that gives me 6 of 10 completely right, 2 partly right, one completely wrong, and one I can no longer assess, so I can’t use it for any statistics. We’ll call it 7-2 or 78% accurate. I’m sure that beats all the “psychics” out there. Now, what shall I predict for 2010? Stay tuned.
Apparently, it is now time for people on my reading list (RSS aggregator, LJ Friends, whatever you want to be called) to make predictions for 2009, and review their past prognosticative abilities. I’ll play along, but I’m taking all sucker bets, so as to get a hit rate much higher than Sylvia Browne ever will.
- The WorldNutDaily and other extreme-rightwing nutjobs will continue to berate President Obama throughout the year, calling into question his patriotism, his citizenry, and perhaps even his sexual orientation, just in hopes that something will cause people to care about the right-wing again.
- Windows 7 won’t be the savior of all things computing in 2009.
- Netbooks will remain nearly impossible to find in retail channels anywhere with a population less than 5 million (like, say, where I live now).
- The economy will continue to suck.
- There still won’t be a single-sign-on system that anyone uses. Sorry, OpenSocial and Facebook API.
- There still won’t be a crypto system that anyone uses. Sorry, PGP.
- The Digital TV changeover will be a complete goat-fuck.
- Our elected representatives will continue to play reverse Robin Hood, taking as much money from the middle class as they can and giving it to the corporate overlords Eisenhower warned us about.
- Weather will continue to be remarkable, which will cause climatologists to point out they predicted just such a thing. Denialists will claim that anything other than blistering heat in Alaska and seventy hurricanes reaching into Iowa is proof there is no such thing as global warming.
- Kit will continue to amuse and enlighten us all with her LE posts.